Over the past 24 hours Syracuse fans have had their outlook on the rest of the season rocked. Fab Melo's, who has been an integral part of our success, future is uncertain. The most optimistic fans believe he will be back for the West Virginia game on Saturday. The most pessimistic fans don't expect to see him suit up for the Orange ever again. I suspect most fans are in the middle hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Fab has made huge improvements since last season and I will be the first to point out for some stretches he has gone into "beast mode," mostly on defense, but every now and then on offense as well. With that being said there are times when he plays like he did last season; picking up silly fouls, missing close range shots and being out of position on defense. He is still a work in progress in regards to consistency, but even as a work in progress his presence on the court has been huge for us.
There is no point in analyzing the best case scenario, since if that is the case all this will turn out to be is a starter missing two games. The worst case scenario is where I am interested. As stated before the worst case scenario would be the rest of the season without Fab.
To do this I want to compare our team this year to our team last season. Last year we lost in the second round, due in part to officials not knowing the proper back court violation rules. Even with that unfortunate blown call, I don't think we were a Final Four team. We would have had to play very well to beat UNC in the next round. So the question becomes are we better this year than we were last season when we had a Sweet 16 caliber team.
2010-11 vs. 2011-12 (w/o Melo)
PG- Scoop Jardine vs. Scoop Jardine
SG- Brandon Triche vs. Brandon Triche
SF- Kris Joseph vs. Kris Joseph
PF- Rick Jackson vs. C.J. Fair
C- Fab Melo vs. Rakeem Christmas
Bench- Dion Waiters, Baye Keita, C.J. Fair, James Southerland vs. Dion Waiters, Baye Keita, James Southerland, Michael Carter-Williams
STARTERS Analysis
I believe Jardine and Joseph are very much the same players they were last season. They have the ability to look excellent at times and the ability to completely disappear at times. I think Triche has improved marginally. The main difference is last year he was a liability at times on the court, while this season there has not been a time when I thought he needed to be off the court based only on his play. (A few times I thought he needed to be subbed for chemistry and/or excitement changes.) Rick Jackson was a much better post player than C.J. Fair. However, C.J. Fair is much more athletic and has the ability to handle the ball and stretch the defense with his shooting. Melo (last year) and Christmas are essentially the same player. They both show signs of loads of potential, but then do something that leaves you scratching your head.
Overall I believe our starters without Fab match up well with our starters from last season. With that being said we lost in the second round last season and at best were only going to make it to the Sweet 16. I would call the comparison a wash.
BENCH Analysis
Dion Waiters is significantly better this season as compared to last season. He understands and has accepted his role on the team and his decision making is much better. I also believe James Southerland has accepted his role and is using his athleticism much more this season. Baye Keita this season is the same player he was post-hand/wrist injury last season. He will give us some minutes, but isn't a threat to score and isn't a great defender. With Fab out we miss C.J. coming off the bench. Since it isn't fair (pun intended) to compare Fair to Carter-Williams I will compare Fair ('10-11) to Southerland ('11-12). Southerland is more athletic and is a better shooter. Southerland's rebounds come from his athleticism while Fair is more of a banger inside getting tough offensive rebounds and put backs. Carter-Williams is a nice addition to this season who can go in and get few minutes here and there. His role is similar to Southerlands from last season. Some games he gets quality minutes and other games he gets little or no minutes. The difference, of course, is the positions they play.
OVERALL
I think this year's team even without Fab is better than last year's team. However we would really need a favorable tournament draw for me to feel good about making it much further than last year. I can see this team making it to the Sweet 16 without much trouble, but then facing tough games that could easily go either way.
CHALLENGES/OUTLOOK
The biggest challenge is going to be adjusting to the absence of Fab. Given practice time I think the adjustment(s) can be made. I don't think I need to post this, but we are not as good without Fab. I am not trying to downplay his importance to this team, but I refuse to panic and jump off the bridge when we have a very good team without him. With Fab I thought we were a lock for the Final Four, if we could avoid a complete meltdown. Without Fab I think, with a favorable draw, we can still go far in the tournament, but the "lock" status is off the table.
No comments:
Post a Comment