Thursday, November 15, 2012

"Too Early to Really Tell" 2012-13 Basketball Preview

March 14, is known as Pi Day to mathematicians.  As a Syracuse basketball fan I can no longer celebrate Pi Day with the same fervor I had in the past.  This is because on March 14, 2012 it was officially announced that Fab Melo was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.  To me March 14 is the day that my alma mater and main source of athletic entertainment during the winter months moved from Final Four favorite to just a member of the pack.  The rumors flew rampant about why Melo was ineligible, but the reason really didn't/doesn't matter.  The fact was that Syracuse had been bitten by the "starting center out for the NCAA tournament" bug again! 

One thing that Fab Melo helped prove is that our coaches know how to evaluate high school talent, know how to recruit, and know how to quickly develop players.  In a single off season Melo went from a token starter, who logged about twenty seconds in one game, to the difference between a Final Four appearance and possibly even a National Championship and a team that squeaked by into the Elite Eight.  I was very disappointed in the ending of 2011-12 season.  However, because of the knowledge and skill set of our coaching staff I knew the future would be very bright.

I chose now to post my preview because we are finally done with our exhibition schedule.  I know that the San Diego State game counted, but the whole idea of playing outside in the sun and wind and on a court with obvious dead and live spots forces me to view it as an exhibition game.  Am I glad we got to play in one of these games on an aircraft carrier?  Absolutely!  (But once is enough.)  Do I think we could really tell what type of team we have based on that game?  Absolutely not!

From watching our first three contests I was able to make some "too early to really tell" observations about our players and overall team.  It should be noted that these are based on three exhibition type games and my observations and ideas of the team could drastically change throughout the season.

STARTERS
Michael Carter Williams showed signs of why many Syracuse fans are so psyched about him.  On several occasions when he took it to the hoop he looked nearly unstoppable.  There were also other times when he tried to force shots.  His shot looked pretty good the first two games, but in the outdoor conditions he seemed to change his technique and didn't look nearly as good.  Hopefully, that adjustment doesn't mess with his shot for the rest of the year.  Based simply on watching him dribble, especially when pressured, he doesn't look like that great of a ball handler.  However, the only times he really lost control of the ball was more of a result of him forcing the action than because of the defenders.  I look for him to have an up and down season, similar to Scoop Jardine.  With that being said, I don't believe his down games will be anywhere near Scoop's down games and I believe his up games will be much higher than Scoop's up games. 


Brandon Triche does everything very well, but nothing great.  Despite his shortcomings, I have always thought the Syracuse fan base has been too harsh when criticizing Triche.  Admittedly, he does "disappear" during games, but that is no different than what Kris Joseph did throughout his career and even last year as a senior (most notably against Ohio State).  I really think Triche makes the team go at times.  He does a lot of little things that go unnoticed.  On several occasions already this season he has stopped mini runs on his own by taking the ball to the hoop.  I think when he is having a good day he can be our most important player.  The thing I look for him this year is to continue to make a positive impact on the game when he is having an off day by doing the little things that go unnoticed by many.

C.J. Fair is often compared to Josh Pace, probably because they are both left handed.  I also think their games are very similar.  Both are above average rebounders and both do an excellent job taking the ball to the hoop and finishing with a basket.  The main difference and the thing that I believe makes Fair better than Pace is shooting.  Fair developed a mid range jump shot last season and seems to have developed an above average three point shot this season.  Now, I wouldn't want Coach B to draw up a last second play with Fair shooting a three for the win, but I have no problem with him shooting 3-4 three pointers in any given game.  The development of his shot will also make it easier for him to drive to the hoop since defenders can no longer sit back and wait when Fair has the ball on the perimeter.

Rakeem Christmas had freshman season much like Fab Melo's.  He started most games, but in most games he only played a few minutes.  Right now he looks to be the most improved player on the team.  He seems more confident and looks to have a better understanding of what is expected of him on both offense and defense.  I am not sure he will have the same impact Melo has as a sophomore, but I do expect him to showcase his athleticism on a regular basis this season.

Dajuan Coleman reminds me of a young Etan Thomas or Arinze Onuaku.  If memory serves me early in his career Etan had a lot of talent, but also got into a lot of foul trouble.  I think Coleman can make big contributions in many games throughout the season if he is able to stay out of foul trouble.  He seems to have a decent offensive game, isn't afraid to crash the boards and moves fairly well on defense.  However, all of these perceived skills won't matter if Coleman picks up two quick fouls in the first four minutes of games.


BENCH PLAYERS
Baye Keita is going to give everything he has every time he steps on the court.  He hustles on defense and while rebounding.  He works hard to set screens and get position in the post.  He is very athletic.  He also picks up some bad fouls from time to time and his catching ability has been questionable.  Granted it is only three games, but he seems to be catching the ball better both rebounding and from passes so far this season.  If he can improve on the way he played as a freshman and the way he ended last season he will be able to help the Orange win games this season.

James Southerland seems to have accepted his role as a career role player.  When he comes into the game he plays with a lot of energy and excitement.  A lot of times this leads to made three pointers, thunderous dunks and crazy blocks.  Sometimes it also leads to playing out of control, firing threes when he is off and silly fouls.  If James can harness his energy and funnel it through the plethora of positives in his game he can be much like Scoop, Joseph and maybe even Waiters were when they came off the bench.

Trevor Cooney had high expectations put on him before ever taking a shot this season.  Many fans feel he can be a deadly three point shooter.  To be honest, I haven't seen enough of him yet to make a judgement.  His shooting technique seems very nice, but a few shots against Bloomsburgh in the Dome and a few minutes against SDSU in the sun and wind really didn't give me a lot to go on.


Jerami Grant seems to be going down the same road James Southerland and Preston Shumpert did their freshmen seasons.  Both were talented as freshman and later in their careers very good players, but both also went stretches in the season without ever leaving the bench.  I think Grant will get 5 minutes here and 8 minutes there, but unless he develops in the non-Big East games, I can see him never leaving the bench for long stretches of the season once Conference games begin.

OVERALL THOUGHTS
I think we have a nice mix of shooters (Southerland, Triche, MCW, Cooney) and bangers (Christmas, Keita, Coleman, Fair).  We have guys who can slash to the hoop at any time (MCW, Triche, Fair).  We have some experienced players (Triche, Keita, Southerland, Fair, Christmas) and some inexperienced players (Grant, Cooney, MCW, Coleman).  We have all the pieces championship teams look for.  If we can avoid major letdowns against lesser opponents and continue to improve from game to game, I believe we can be as good or better than last season.  After the 2009-10 and 2011-12 seasons I guess my main hope should be that our starting center is playing in the NCAA Tournament!

No comments:

Post a Comment